AAP not with INC = An edge to BJP

 Head Shots

1.      No alliance of AAP and congress has given an edge to BJP.

2.       Dip in the AAP’s support base giving oxygen to BJP.

3.       Issues like unemployment, affordable houses, improved water supply, functional healthcare centres will be important this election.

4.      5.6 million people which is nearly one- third of the capital’s residents live in unauthorised colonies and slums.

 

As, in the 6^th phase of elections the capital of India is going under polls. Delhi comprising of 7 parliamentary constituencies has maximum number of migrants than the locals, who play a decisive role during elections.  Delhi is currently seeing a triangular fight between AAP, BJP and INC. However, in order to defeat BJP, INC and AAP was coming into an alliance but later congress denied. BJP in 2014, due to Modi wave wiped out all the 7 seats but the AAP made a comeback in February 2015 by winning 67 of the 70 Assembly seats. The mood of the voters is still not the same due to the anti-incumbency over the years.

An alliance with Congress would have helped in consolidating the anti-BJP votes but it did not happen. Also, Ex- colleague and political activist, Yogendra Yadav, requesting the Delhi voters for opting NOTA during the polling might go negative. A dip in the AAP support base is giving much-needed oxygen to BJP. An estimated 5.6 million people which is nearly one- third of the capital’s residents live in unauthorised colonies and slums. So, issues like unemployment, affordable houses, improved water supply, functional healthcare centres and hospitals might be imperative this election

 

Who is getting an edge over whom?

North East Delhi

The constituency sees a fight between congress Sheila Dikshit, BJP's Manoj Tiwari and AAP's Dilip Pandey. The incumbent MP might face anti-incumbency due to issues like development in unauthorised colonies, bad shape of roads and contaminated water which are the poll issues. However, being the artist and a locale of Bihar, he is quite popular among the labour and Bhojpuri community especially who have migrated from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which has the highest concentration. Also, Poorvanchalis and Muslims are other two communities quite dominant and play a decisive role in the election. Muslims here are around 23% which is largely concentrated in Mustafabad, Seelampur and Ghonda assembly segments. As, the core vote base of AAP and congress is same that is Muslims, Dalits and low- income groups, who had shifted to AAP in the 2015 is likely to get divided giving an upper hand to BJP. Also, the anti- incumbency factor will work against AAP being in power in the state and Dilip Pandey being the first- time candidate would not be able to garner much votes. Although, Shelia Dixit being 3 -time CM would attract some votes on her CM image but solely would not work in winning the constituency.

Chandani Chowk

The constituency sees a fight between BJP’s Harsh Vardhan, Congress Jai Prakash Aggarwal and AAP’s Pankaj Gupta. The battle is mainly between BJP and congress candidates as AAP’s candidate is fighting for the first time and would not create much impact before the two and also due to some internal party differences Chandni Chowk MLA Alka Lamba has not campaigned for him that might go negative for him. The PC sees an anti- BJP wave due to impact of GST, Demonetization and sealing drive against commercial establishments in residential areas specially the trading community where there are around 18% Vaishya community traders who usually support BJP. The Congress and AAP banks on Muslim and SC voters, who are 14% and 16% in the constituency which again would be divided among the parties ultimately giving an advantage to BJP.

There would be a battleground situation as there is anti-incumbency factor against BJP and the incumbent and congress is facing loss on the division of votes with AAP.

East Delhi

The PC sees a fight between AAP candidate Atishi, BJP’s Gautam Gambhir and Congress’ Arvinder Singh Lovely. However, the major battle is between Atishi and Gambhir as both are the popular personalities of their fields which would be the major factors that would attract votes. Atishi being the advisor to Delhi education minister Manish Sisodia has been credited with improving government schools in Delhi and initiating education reforms in the capital. Recently, Swara Bhasker and Jignesh Mevani campaigned for her. Gambhir being a star would attract votes of almost every age-group and traditionally the PC is a stronghold of BJP. Congress candidate would not be able to create much impact as because of his ‘Dal badlu’ image before people.

New Delhi

The PC sees a fight between INC’s Ajay Makhen, BJP’s Minakshi Lekhi and AAP candidate Brijesh Goyal. The battle is between INC and BJP candidates as Brijesh Goyal is little lightweight before the other two. Ajay Maken being the former MP has the edge this time due his positive image and dominance over the PC. Minakshi Lekhi is currently facing high anti-incumbency due to the sealing drive issue and the Modi wave which led the PC won in 2014 has also been reduced.

North West Delhi (SC)

The PC sees a fight between BJP’s Hans Raj Hans, INC’s Rajesh Lilothia and AAP’s Guggan Singh. The edge is seen towards the BJP as their candidate is a popular Sufi singer coming from Dalit community is able to attract the caste and vote on his image. This PC is a swing since 2009 and due to dividation of votes between the congress and AAP along with the unpopular image of the candidate will actually give an upper hand to BJP.

South Delhi

The PC is mainly Jats, Gujjars and Poorvanchalis dominated, and the candidates are fielded focussing on these caste groups to win the seat. As congress fielded Olympian boxer Vijender Singh belongs from Jat community, on the other hand BJP candidate Ramesh Bidhuri is a Gurjar. The latter is riding on the Modi card propagating about air and surgical strikes in his active political campaigning. On the other hand Vijender Singh is trying to attract Jat and youth voters by personally meeting people. There is a complete battleground situation as both the parties have fielded the caste candidates and also seat is a swing seat since 2004.

West Delhi

Purvanchali, Jat, Sikh and Punjabi voters are dominant in the PC.  The Jat votes will be divided because both AAP’s Balbir Singh Jakhar and BJP’s Pravesh Verma belongs from the same community but the major chunk will go with the latter due to his father’s goodwill and his developmental works. The Purvanchalis community votes will be majorly inclined towards BJP due to Modi. On the other hand congress candidate Mahabal Mishra is likely to gain support of Sikh and Punjabi voters but due to Sajjan kumar’s arrest in anti-Sikh riots might affect the party’s image. Hence, BJP on this seat is likely to have an upper hand.

The core vote base of AAP and the Congress is same which leads to dividation and ultimately giving an edge to BJP.

 Parting Shots

1.    Entering stars into politics has become a trend as Gautam Gambhir joins BJP, Vijender Singh is the congress candidate from South Delhi.

2.     Sealing drive have been emerged as the common issues of almost every parliamentary constituency.