Battle beyond numbers: 2019 elections

Head Shots

1.       Reforms like GST, demonetization and issues like national security, Rafael and unemployment will play an important role in influencing voters’ preference.

2.       Hindi heartlands like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh etc will be the deciding factors as states like West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana are dominated by regional forces.

3.       States like UP and Bihar having an alliance are fighting on the formula of consolidation of votes and anti- incumbency factor.

4.       Congress has launched NYAY scheme and ‘Apni baat Rahul ke saath’ as to counter BJP’s PM-KISAN scheme and ‘Bharat ki baat Modi ke Saath’ campaign respectively.

 

BJP Vs ALL

Where the 2019 battle is about to end in no more than 10 days, the two major political parties BJP and Congress are much confident on their victories. However, this time it will not be easy for the incumbent party to attract voters solely on the name of Modi.

After all the 7 phases are over, the counting will be held on May 23^rd. This 17^th Lok Sabha elections will be worth watching as the battle is between BJP Vs ALL. However, the factors like declining Modi wave, anti- incumbency, GST, demonetization and issues like farm loan waiver, Rafael and unemployment will play an important role in influencing voters’ preference as it did in the assembly election of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. At the same time recent incidents like air strike after pulwama attack and surgical strike might be a deciding factor. States like West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka are usually dominated by regional parties but the actual deciding factors are Hindi heartland states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Haryana etc.

Congress is busy in creating propaganda on the non- deliverables of the 2014 poll promises of BJP like 15 lakhs in every bank account and farm loan waiver, on the other hand BJP is propagating about the benefits of its schemes like Swatch Bharat Mission, Ujjwala Yogna, Mudra Yogna, Ayushmaan Bharat and Saubhagya. Both the parties are actively campaigning in different states as BJP cooked ‘Samrasta Khichdi' at the Bhim Mahasangam rally in Ramleela Maidan in order to woo Dalit voters, on the other hand congress party made Shakti mobile application in order to create a strong connect with its party worker and its supremo. Even regional parties are not behind in the race, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra have started working on the booth level and made its frontals active like BKS, SLS etc, similarly Mamta organised United India Rally rally in order to uproot BJP.

Other than active political campaigning, parties have taken support of film starts and popular personalities as Sunny Deol joins BJP, Urmila Matondkar is the Congress candidate from Mumbai North. Also films like URI, The Accidental Prime minister were all used to set a stage in the coming elections.

 

A brief political analysis of few states

Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh having the highest number of Lok sabha seats, is seeing an alliance of SP and BSP which is going to give a tough fight to the incumbent BJP due to consolidation of votes, positive image of Akhilesh Yadav at the same time anti- incumbency against Yogi Adityanath, also declining Modi wave would be a factor which might give a upper hand to the alliance. However, Congress not in alliance is limited to its traditional seats Amethi and Raibareli.  In 2014, NDA bagged 73 seats out of 80.

 

Bihar

Bihar, again is seeing an alliance of RJD, Congress, RLSP and HAM parties. The alliance is having an upper hand due to the consolidation of caste votes specifically Yadav and Muslim communities which are the traditional supporter of RJD and congress and are dominant in the maximum number of parliamentary constituencies.  Along with this Tejashwi Yadav is emerging as a youth icon and is seen an alternative of Nitish kumar.

 

Madhya Pradesh

The state comprising of 29 parliamentary constituencies is seeing a straight two- way fight between BJP and congress and SP and BSP is having an alliance which has fielded its candidate on limited seats. In the last assembly elections congress defeated BJP because of the growing anti- incumbency against Shivraj Singh Chouhan, emergence of parties like SPAKAS and JAYAS, and farmer distress and issue like SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act. This time it’s a complete battleground situation between the two and none is seen to have an upper hand.

 

West Bengal

In 2016 assembly elections BJP got 10.3% votes and won 3 seats and 2014 Lok Sabha election it got 17% votes by winning 2 seats, before that BJP was not in the scene. In the state like west Bengal where left parties always had a great influence it is not easy to make entry.

However, BJP was a distant fourth in 2016. But in the panchayat elections in May, it was the second most dominant player. It also came second in the assembly by elections in May. Earlier in the January by polls, it was second behind TMC in the Noapara assembly and Uluberia Lok Sabha seats. In 2017, it was second in the by-election to Kanthi South Lok Sabha seat.  Also, there are more than 2550 shakhas across Bengal in the last one year, and it plans to go beyond block levels to 'reach out' to people at 'mandal’ and gram panchayat level says a senior functionary of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).  RSS and its frontal organisations have started a pro-NRC drive in all West Bengal districts near Bangladesh border with a focus on door-to-door campaign to convince people about the “future perils” of “non-stop infiltration” of Bangladeshi Muslims into the state.

However, in the political sense, the party is considered as an outsider which is unknown to the culture of Bengal unknown to their mother tongue. This will be a major factor and the biggest weakness leading to huge loss to the party. BJP is politically invested in the Hindi and Marwari speakers in the state and they remain the party’s core support base. It has also tried to develop roots in the state’s tribal regions bordering Jharkhand. Unlike in the southern states, Hindi is largely understood across West Bengal but it’s enough for the opposition to influence voters against the party emotionally. Another reason is the lack of local leadership or Bengali ‘Babu’ or ‘Didi’ who can represent the party.  State president Dilip Ghosh is no match for Banerjee as a public speaker. Nor is Mukul Roy, the BJP’s import from the TMC. Babul Supriyo is yet to gain stature as a mass leader.

‘BJP needs to find support among the largest voter segment, the Bangla-speaking Hindu voters, who make up 45% of the electorate. Bengali Hindus if targeted can be appealed providing a good support’ says the newly appointed state vice-president Chandra Bose. 

 

Setting the stage

Congress: Tit for tat to BJP

 

‘NYAY’ to farmers by Congress

Congress in this election is not at all ready to leave any stone unturned as it is a victim of the assembly elections held in 5 states in 2017.  Nyuntam AayYojana, or NYAY, the announcement came just after a month of Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme being announced by BJP in Gorakhpur in a farmer rally on the 24th of last month.

Congress party ruling for decades very cleverly has diverted the discussion towards the practical implementation of the scheme and instead focused more on the numbers which highlighted congress better in comparison to BJP. In order to counter the latter, Congress president highlighted that if the party comes to power then it will give Rs 6000 per month which compared when is Rs 6000 per year given by the incumbent party.

If compared, both the schemes on various parameters suppose in terms of coverage then PM kisan scheme has covered 27.5 million farmers in paying the 1^st instalment during the scheme launch and another 20.1 million farmers will be covered too before the elections. At the same time NYAY promises to cover 25 crore poor or 20% of the poorest of the poor families of the country, but has not exactly cleared about the category of beneficiaries except disclosing a single parameter of minimum of Rs 12,000 of monthly income per family that annually comes to Rs 72,000. The latter defines a programme to benefit the poorest of poor on the other hand BJP scheme is directed towards small and marginal owners. The government scheme has already transferred around Rs 5,500 crore to 27.5 million farmers and will release another chunk of Rs 5,500 crores whereas congress hasn’t disclosed any approximate amount or expenditure which will be incurred in the implementation. However, government has allocated Rs 1.84 trillion under the right to food Act this year, and there are other subsidies, including Rs 75,000 crore in PM Kisan Nidhi, Rs 20,000 crore in Ayushmaan Bharat. He said all of this comes to an yearly allocation of Rs 5.34 trillion, and to Rs 7 trillion if smaller subsidies on Ujjwala, electricity and housing scheme are added.

The launching of schemes targeting poor and specially farmers on the income and employment issues is something well though by the opposition.

 

‘Apni baat Rahul ke saath’

‘I am Rahul, I am Congress president’, says the party president while talking to a set of young people at the restaurant in an outreach campaign called ‘Apni baat Rahul ke saath’. The campaign is actually a counter attack to the BJP’s ‘Bharat ki baat Modi ke Saath’ campaign. BJP through its campaign has set the target to reach almost 10 crore people and take their suggestions on various issues, can also be called an extension of Modi’s Man ki Baat . on the other hand, Rahul on his part connecting with the youth in a direct way is likely to improve his image from the son of a royal family to a leader of the people.

After winning the elections in three most important states where the direct fight was between BJP and congress, there was a positive sentiment palpated about Rahul Gandhi for the first time. The hard hitted people from GST and demonetization was seeing an alternative of Modi in him. Also, making mockery of Gandhi has actually brought him to the notice of people, which BJP didn’t realize over the time.

Congress is doing nothing new or creative on its publicity or campaigning part just copying BJP. But, knowing their strategy to outreach and applying the same is actually neutralizing the effect and influence of BJP when people are not much happy with BJP.

 

 

 

Make or break

2019 is battle beyond numbers as reputations are at stakes. The two major players BJP and congress are struggling for their survival in the nation’s biggest democracy. Congress is leaving no stone unturned to retain its kingdom back whereas BJP is again using Modi card to win the hearts of voters.  This election regional forces have also emerged as the strong players and not limited to their own states.

 

Votes deciding fortunes: May 23^rd

The day will be catching everybody’s eyes, as would decide the fortune of the biggest democracy of the world.

1.       Will people accept Modi as it’s leader again?

2.       Do people see Rahul Gandhi as an alternative of Modi?

3.       Will people vote BJP on reforms like GST and demonetization?

4.       Will the coming verdict put the existence of few regional forces at stake?

 

Parting Shots

1.       Image of Rahul Gandhi has been improved due to the active political campaigning where as BJP is still dependent on its Modi card.

2.       This election regional parties have emerged as the strong players as compared to the previous elections.

3.       Films like ‘URI’ and ‘The Accidental Prime minister’ were an attempt to set a stage in favour of BJP before elections.

4.       Entering film stars into politics is seen as a trend as Sunny Deol joins BJP and Urmila Matondkar is the Congress candidate from Mumbai North.