Modi, Rahul or X

The suspense is going to end in no more than 2 days as to which party will be forming the government. According, to the recent exit polls NDA is getting an edge securing on an average of 300 seats. Among all the pollsters, India Today-AXIS My India is giving 339-365 seats, just leaving 77-108 for UPA and 69-95 for others.

In the formation of the 2019 government there can be 5 scenarios:

1.      If NDA gets a magic figure 272

If the incumbent government secures the magic figure of 272, then Narendra Modi will be the PM again. This scenario is most likely to take place as according to the poll predictions like India Today-Axis BJP is getting 62-68 seats in UP, similarly, the News18-IPSOS poll gave the BJP 60-62 seats. In Orissa, BJP is likely to get 15-19 seats out of 21. NDA is likely to have an edge over Hindi heartlands like in Rajasthan BJP is getting 20-23 sets on an average out of 25. Similarly, in MP 23-25 seats is likely to win by BJP.

 

2.      If NDA is unable to secure a magic figure

If the incumbent falls short of by 30-40 seats then its’ likely to take support from other parties resulting in a post-poll alliance. In this scenario a situation might arise that the alliance partners may oppose the PM candidature of Modi, resulting in new candidatures for the PM post.

The most probable candidate is Nitin Gadkari as according to a report published in The Print he is quite popular among regional parties and not limited to NDA allies. He maintains good relations with all the oppositions.  He has refused to follow the Modi-Shah kind of untouchability and hostility towards political opponents also modeled himself around Sharad Pawar, the other PM aspirant from Maharashtra, in developing acceptability across party lines.

 

3.      Congress garnering more than 125 seats

In the third scenario, if UPA is able to secure more than 125 seats, then in order to attain the remaining one, it will take support of the other parties resulting in Rahul Gandhi being the PM.

 

4.      Congress getting less than 75 seats

If the party gets limited to 75 seats, then, it might support the regional parties coming together in an alliance. In this case, any strong regional leader of the alliance partners might become the PM. However, the government will be unstable.

 

5.      No BJP – No Congress

If NDA secures 125- 175 seats and UPA is limited to 75-100 seats resulting in none of them forming the government which is less likely to happen. In this scenario the regional parties like TMC, YSRCP, SP- BSP, TDP, and TRS will form the government, resulting in a No Modi No Congress PM.